Using predictive modeling and a risk scoring system
"Congenital syphilis cases have been highly geographically concentrated in that only 5% of all counties in the United States reported at least one case of CS in 2015... Given that CS is not geographically widespread, identification of county-level characteristics associated with the presence of CS in affected areas could help identify and target areas for enhanced CS prevention efforts, maximizing limited resources. We examined the association between CS and several county-level socioeconomic and health demographics. In addition, we developed risk scores to predict areas at elevated risk for CS where enhanced CS prevention efforts should be targeted (Cuffe et al., 2020)."
"The model identified 973 (31.0% of all US counties) counties at elevated risk for CS (sensitivity, 88.1%; specificity, 74.0%). County factors that were predictive of CS included metropolitan area, income inequality, primary and secondary syphilis rates among women and men who have sex with men, and population proportions of those who are non-Hispanic black, Hispanic, living in urban areas, and uninsured. The predictive model using 2014–2015 CS outcome data was predictive of 2016–2017 CS cases (area under the curve value, 89.2%) (Cuffe et al., 2020)."
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